The Pension Market in Transition

Six Structural Shifts Reshaping the Swedish Pension System

After several decades of strong capital accumulation, supported by favorable market conditions, the Swedish pension system is now moving into a new phase of large-scale payouts. Over the coming decade, approximately 1.3 million Swedes are expected to retire, bringing more than 1 800 billion SEK in pension assets into the payout phase, much of it from relatively new defined contribution (DC) arrangements.

As the pension systems mature and individuals shift from savings to withdrawals, the demands placed on products, advice, and asset management are fundamentally changing. What worked in an accumulation-focused environment is no longer sufficient.

Six strategic considerations for market players going forward:

1. Design for payouts, not only savings: Shift from a growth-only mindset to building payout solutions that manage longevity, sequence risk, and income stability throughout retirement.
2. Look beyond target-date funds: Reassess automatic age-based de-risking models that may be overly conservative and erode long-term return potential.
3. Turn advice into a competitive advantage: Modernize advisory models by strengthening withdrawal guidance and leveraging AI to deliver cost-efficient, scalable, and personalized support.
4. Asset management quality over fees: Move beyond fee competition and differentiate through consistent, high-quality investment performance.
5. Expand the role of private assets: As more value creation shifts to private markets, pension portfolios need broader access to unlisted assets, supported by fund structures capable of managing liquidity and payouts.
6. Build for transparency: EU initiatives such as Value for Money and Open Finance are increasing scrutiny of fees, returns, and outcomes. This intensifies competition and creates new opportunities to differentiate.

Taken together, the coming decade will test whether products, advice, and capital management frameworks are fit for a maturing pension system. This paper provides an overview of the most critical developments and highlights areas where new thinking and structural adaptation will be required. Find the report below (in Swedish).